Yields rise, ending 4-week streak of lower rates
U.S. Treasury (UST) yields rose across the curve last week, ending the 4-week streak of lower long-end yields. UST yields rose 2 to 4 basis points (bps) in a bear-steepening trade.
Two things drove the steepener last week: 1) better jobs data and 2) the quarterly refunding announcement from the Treasury. The latter included larger-than-expected bond sales in the longer end of the curve. Treasury has been vocal about terming out their issuance at such low rates, and we think any concerns about long-end supply will prove temporary. One reason for that is the continued fall in real yields, with the U.S. 10-year hitting a new all-time low last week. This price action continues to drive gold higher and the U.S. dollar (USD) lower.
Credit continued to trade well last week. Investment-grade (IG) credit spreads fell 4 bps last week, now at the same level as early March. High-yield (HY) spreads are back to late February levels, having declined last week by 45 bps [Figure 4].
U.S.-China tensions escalate, still back-burner issue
Despite the increase in tensions between the U.S. and China, the Chinese yuan strengthened against the USD on the week. While the laundry list of U.S. actions towards China grows longer, nothing has yet provoked an escalating response.
Trade representatives are speaking this week via videoconference as part of the Phase One deal. As China’s trade data last week showed, they will not be able to meet their end of the bargain. Indeed, China’s bilateral trade surplus with the U.S. widened to its largest since November 2018. But until President Trump pushes this issue, it remains on the back burner. Keep your eyes on Twitter as the election grows near!
What to watch this week
COVID-19 & High-frequency Data
COVID case counts continue to decline across the country — though deaths, as a lagging indicator, remain high. While recent hotspots have begun to temper, other places are giving public health officials cause for worry. The market, however, appears largely unconcerned at this point, as long as stimulus is forthcoming and economic activity doesn’t rapidly deteriorate.
With respect to activity, high-frequency data showed that while it’s among the most valuable data we have to look at, it’s not gospel. Non-farm payrolls were stronger-than-expected last week, contrary to what high-frequency data had been suggesting.
To us, this surprise to the upside in payrolls not only underscores the challenges the COVID environment has posed for investors, but also points to the incredible role stimulus is playing in controlling the narrative and moving markets.
NFIB Small Business Survey
On Tuesday, the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) will release its Small Business Survey results for July. Small business optimism is expected to continue its climb up from June.
Jobless claims, both initial and continuing, are expected to continue to come down this Thursday. Despite their decrease, the numbers remain historically high. Employment is still weak across the globe. In fact, while PMIs last week were largely positive, employment is lagging the recovery.
U.S. retail sales
Retail sales figures on Friday will likely be some of the most watched data this week, since the figures have been surprising to the upside. Expectations are that this week’s report will show a continued increase, though at a smaller rate than last month.
University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey
This week’s University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index is expected to show a decline, which is cause for some concern. Because stimulus is coming, though, a slight decline may not make waves. That said, it’s something to keep an eye on in the near-term as details around stimulus emerge.
This week, the Biden campaign is expected to announce its Vice Presidential pick. Essentially, anyone but Elizabeth Warren will likely signal a centrist campaign focused on electability. This is a scenario the market can handle with relative ease at this point. But that could change, as the election heats up and both sides begin campaigning in earnest come September [Table 1]. The election is still just under 3 months away, after all. And if 2020 has taught us anything, it’s that a lot can happen between now and then.