Now that the Federal Reserve has reached 0% for its target rate, we thought it would be interesting to look at what the market expected Fed policy to look like the last time rates went to zero, during the Global Financial Crisis. Beginning January 2009, the market believed that the Fed was set to hike rates 6 times over the next 2 years. Today, we’re back at zero again — but the market expects there won’t be any hikes for the next 2 years. It’s clear the market has internalized the idea of a lower-for-longer rate, which will likely keep a cap on long-term bond yields, despite the expected record debt issuance by the U.S. Treasury this year. Against the background of today’s historically terrible, even tragic, unemployment rate — 14.7% — it’s easy to understand why rates are expected to stay so low for so long.