This belies the challenge the pandemic has posed for economists — the lack of uniform trends or consistent data is making it difficult to assess how much damage COVID-19 is likely to inflict on the economy in the end. Right now, however large or small you think its impact will be, in all probability you could cherry pick the data to prove your point.

What does this mean for markets? Narratives assume a bigger role when it’s this difficult to discern what’s happening in the economy and on a company-by-company basis. Clearly, the reopening/back-to-work narrative has dominated recently, but that’s not set in stone and risks remain. In other words, prepare for a bumpy summer.

States shown were selected to represent various levels and timing of reopening.

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