What Happened Last Week
- Weak Payroll Data: Friday’s weak labor data and massive downward revisions for the prior two months disappointed investors.
- Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Chief Fired: After the labor data was published, President Trump publicly fired the head of the agency responsible for the data.
- Mag-7 Earnings: Several members of the Mag-7 reported earnings with mixed results.
What We’re Watching This Week
- Earnings Ahead: It will be another busy week with a number of tech, healthcare, and consumer-facing companies reporting.
- Federal Appointments: Trump is expected to name a new BLS head and a new Federal Reserve Governor in the coming days.
- Trade: With the August 1 deadline behind us, negotiations remain ongoing with key partners including Canada, Mexico, and China.
Investment Management Team’s Views
The “Most Important Week of the Summer” lived up to expectations but not in the way investors expected. Several of the Mag-7 reported earnings, but last week it was the macro that mattered more. On Friday, weak payroll data and large downward revisions for the prior two months saw volatility return to the S&P 500 after a quiet July. The index sank 1.6% and the 2 year yield declined 27 basis points as traders renewed bets on a September Fed cut. Fed Governor, Adriana Kugler, resigned from her post on Friday, allowing Trump to nominate a new governor. This may give some indication as to who he will nominate to be Chair after Chair Powell’s term expires next year. In a Truth Social post hours after the payroll data was released, President Trump again attacked Powell saying the central banker was “too late” to cut rates. More importantly, Trump fired BLS chief, Erika McEntarfer, in the same post – reigniting fears for the independence and integrity of U.S. institutions, a key support for our capital markets.
In addition to the unexpectedly weak labor data and its fallout, last week was full of earnings reports. So far, earnings season has been divided, with tech, communications, and financials firms navigating the difficult environment much better than their counterparts who produce physical goods or face the consumer directly. The tariff induced inventory buildup and demand pull forward from earlier this year looks to be running out, which will likely introduce margin pressures for those companies with direct exposure to the consumer or a large amount of foreign inputs. In addition, consumer spending is showing signs of slowing, introducing fears about revenue growth.
Last week’s reports from the Mag-7 were mixed, with Microsoft and Meta both delivering beats and issuing strong guidance, with Meta shares rallying over 12% on Thursday. Both guided for higher CapEx spending which should bode well for the chip makers and others involved in AI development. Amazon disappointed investors with weaker than expected cloud services sales, and shares declined over 8% on Friday. Apple posted better than expected iPhone sales, but the results showed evidence that tariffs pulled some demand forward. Looking ahead, it is another full week for earnings, with a number of tech, healthcare, and miscellaneous consumer companies giving business updates.