What Happened Last Week
- Narrow Leadership: While the S&P 500 continues to notch new highs, gains remain concentrated in AI and memory-related names.
- Recovering Labor Market: Last week’s nonfarm payrolls report showed the second straight month of strong job gains.
- Oil Prices: Oil prices were volatile last week amid stalled U.S.-Iran negotiations.
What We’re Watching This Week
- Inflation Data: This week will bring updated inflation reports, as investors look for signs that the energy price shock is spreading.
- Asia Summits: Secretary Bessent will visit Japan ahead of the highly anticipated Trump-Xi Summit in Beijing.
- Middle East: Talks remain ongoing, with the U.S. rejecting Iran’s latest response to its peace proposal, as Iran’s nuclear program remains the sticking point.
Investment Management Team’s Views
Strong earnings from several smaller firms tied to the AI ecosystem extended the rally in U.S. equities last week. The Nasdaq-100 rallied for the sixth consecutive week, gaining more than 26% over that period, a pace last seen during the sharp market rebound in 2009. Still, participation beneath the surface remained limited, as technology was the only sector to outperform the broader market last week. While the AI investment cycle continues to generate exceptional earnings growth and support valuations, the increasing concentration of leadership raises the importance of positioning and sentiment as drivers of near-term market moves.
Elevated oil prices and rising global yields continue to pressure the broadening trade and keep financial conditions tight, but cross-asset moves suggest investors are becoming more focused on the medium-term outlook than the immediate supply disruption. Equities in the U.S. and internationally have now fully retraced their initial declines following the outbreak of the conflict, while emerging markets have kept pace with the substantial gains in the Nasdaq-100 since late February. Last week, the dollar also returned to pre-conflict levels, reinforcing the view that investors are beginning to look through the shock. Importantly, the fundamental backdrop remains healthier than market breadth suggests, with broad-based earnings growth across sectors and continued resilience in labor market data helping support risk appetite, even as geopolitical uncertainty remains elevated.
Inflation and diplomacy will share the spotlight in the week ahead. Tuesday’s consumer price index (CPI) release will offer the clearest look yet at how much of the recent energy shock is beginning to flow through to consumer prices, with markets particularly focused on whether higher oil and gasoline costs are starting to broaden into core inflationary pressures. At the same time, President Trump’s May 15 meeting with Xi Jinping in Beijing will be closely watched for any progress on trade, energy coordination, and the broader geopolitical backdrop surrounding Iran. With equities back near highs and positioning increasingly concentrated in AI-linked leadership, markets may prove especially sensitive to any outcome that meaningfully shifts the outlook for inflation, rates, or global growth.