What Happened Last Week
- Energy Escalation: The U.S./Israeli coalition and Iran both ramped up strikes against energy infrastructure in the Gulf region.
- Yields Rise: Concerns of a prolonged conflict and central bank commentary put pressure on fixed income.
- Mixed Policy Signals: As the conflict intensifies, it is increasingly difficult to read into messaging from either side as conditions rapidly change.
What We’re Watching This Week
- Oil Prices: Oil prices, the security of energy infrastructure, and the situation at Hormuz remain the central signposts for the market.
- Possible Talks: The Trump administration has claimed productive talks with Iranian officials, with the Iranian regime denying this.
- Actions, not Words: We’re focusing on concrete actions from the U.S., Iran, and Israel as guideposts for meaningful paths forward in the conflict.
Investment Management Team’s Views
Operation Epic Fury continued to escalate last week amid increasingly uncertain policy signaling. U.S./Israeli strikes and Iranian responses pointed to a broadening of the energy infrastructure war, with disruptions extending beyond oil into natural gas (LNG) and fertilizer markets. Substantial damage to natural gas supplies raises the stakes for global energy supply, particularly in Europe and parts of Asia. Energy prices responded accordingly, with crude oil pushing back toward prior highs and reinforcing concerns that the shock could become more persistent. At the same time, the diplomatic backdrop deteriorated, with fewer clear paths to de-escalation and increasingly hardened rhetoric. By week’s end, markets were increasingly focused on the risk that the conflict evolves into a more prolonged disruption, keeping risk premia elevated across asset classes.
Market reaction intensified as investors adjusted to a more inflationary and uncertain backdrop. Equities moved lower across the board, with the S&P 500 breaking below its 200-day moving average for the first time since last March and extending its recent drawdown to almost 7% from the January highs. Weakness broadened into small caps and international markets, while mega-caps and the U.S. dollar remained beneficiaries of their relative safety and quality. At the same time, bonds failed to deliver their typical diversification benefit, with yields rising as investors factored in the inflationary implications of sustained energy pressure and new central bank communications. Market participants remain in “wait and see” mode as the rapid flow of information and changing conditions on the ground make forecasting very challenging.
Today’s early news flow has changed the market tone to start the week. The President walked back his weekend ultimatum on reopening the Strait and said that productive talks were underway with Iran. The five-day pause on U.S. attacks on Iranian energy infrastructure is another positive development. While Iran has denied any talks with the U.S., markets are responding positively, but sustained relief is likely only possible if both sides firmly commit not to strike energy infrastructure and if oil begins to flow through the Strait. For now, we remain focused on the situation in the Gulf and will be watching for signs that this de-escalation is actually taking place.