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The Race Is On — 2020 U.S. Election Calendar of Events

We’ve talked about it for months, and it’s finally here! The first Presidential debate is this Tuesday, September 29th — and we’re now just 39 days from Election Day 2020.

Stock Market Sees Longest Losing Streak In Almost a Year

Euphoria in domestic equity markets unwinds

Markets “sell the winners” again last week

Market turbulence continued last week in another “sell the winners” week of trading, shortened by the Labor Day holiday. The action was most pronounced in the U.S. equity market, the underperformer again last week (SPX -2.5%), led lower by weakness in tech (CCMP -4.1%) [Figure 1]. Back-to-back weekly declines haven’t occurred in the S&P 500 since early May, although the index is back to where it was one month ago — a reminder of how strong recent performance of U.S. equities has been. International equities had a better week than their domestic peers, with notable strength in international developed market equities (MXEA +1.5%) and strong relative emerging market performance (MXEF -0.7%) [Figure 1].

Does Covid Second Wave Seem Too Remote?

There are now more Covid-19 cases in Europe than there are in the U.S., according to the World Health Organization (WHO). Strikingly, France is truly in a second wave scenario, having just reported its highest number of cases since its lockdown expired — and more than it saw during the first wave’s peak.

Stock Market Sell-off Biggest Since June

Last week was another reminder that stocks don’t go straight up all the time. 

Should Apple’s Stock Split Matter This Much?

At the close of business last Friday, August 28, 2020, Apple (AAPL), the first company to ever reach a market cap of $2 trillion, split its stock 4-for-1 effective for the following Monday’s trading session. This is its fifth split since going public in 1980. Apple’s stock price went from just shy of $500 per share at the close on Friday (8/28) to open at $127.58 on Monday (8/31). The total value of Apple didn’t fall, however, because while the price of a share was cut by 75%, there are now 4 times as many shares outstanding.

Global Markets See 5-Week Winning Streak

Upside momentum continues to build in equity markets as we approach the last week of a very non-standard summer. That makes five weeks of gains for global equities, their longest streak since last Fall.

How Will the Fed’s New Inflation Target Impact Interest Rates?

Chairman of the Federal Reserve Jerome Powell announced the results of the year and a half long monetary policy framework review, and while it was somewhat telegraphed, it’s important for the path of interest rates.

Market Closes at Record High, But Rally a Narrow One

The S&P 500 had another positive week last week — its fourth in a row and its longest streak since last December. The domestic equity market added 0.8% (SPX) to close Friday at an all-time high just below 3,400 points, and on Monday of this week opened above the psychologically significant 3400 mark. However, the U.S. market was an outlier last week, as overseas markets fell 0.6% (MXWDU), led by weakness in international developed markets, down 1.0% (MXEA). Emerging market equities closed the week 0.1% lower (MXEF) [Figure 1].

Market Says “It’s August” In Slow Week Dominated By U.S. Politics

It was another slow week for markets as out-of-office replies pile up and volume plunges.  Equities put in another positive week with international developed markets outperforming strongly (MXEA +2.4%) while emerging markets lagged (MXEF +0.4%). Domestic equities landed in between the two. The S&P 500 notched a 0.6% (SPX) gain on the week to close less than 1% from its all-time high.

Jobless Claims Dip Below One Million for First Time In 21 Weeks

Initial jobless claims beat expectations this week, falling below 1 million to 963,000 for the first time in 21 weeks. In an intriguing sign that economic activity may be restarting faster than expected, initial jobless claims are now the lowest they’ve been since mid-March.

Market rallies in lackluster trading as stimulus talks fall apart

Last week’s market action certainly felt like a typical August. Equities rallied in lackluster trading characterized by low volume and a general lack of interest from market players. The U.S. market outperformed (SPX +2.5%), while emerging markets lagged, up only 1.0% on the week (MXEF). International developed markets closed up 2.0% (MXEA) [Figure 1].

Housing a Bright Spot in Economy as Mortgage Rates Hit Lowest Level Ever

According to a weekly survey by Freddie Mac, the interest rate on a 30-year fixed rate mortgage, now 2.88%, hit an all-time low dating back to the survey’s start in 1971.

Market Shrugs Off COVID and GDP Concerns as Big Tech Dominates

Equities rallied last week, capping off four straight months of gains to end July about 5% below February’s all-time highs on a global basis (MXWD). But the pace of the rally off the March lows has been uneven. U.S. equities (SPX) have outpaced international shares (MXWDU) by about 5.8% in the past 4 months and remain about 9% ahead year-to-date (YTD) [Figure 1]. Focusing on U.S. large-cap tech provides an even more stark picture — the NASDAQ is up 40% since the end of March [Figure 1].

Longest Bearish Streak In Retail Investor Sentiment Since 1987

Despite the recent rebound in the S&P 500 Index, which is up almost 45% from the March lows and just shy of 5% off of all-time highs, retail investor sentiment hasn’t rebounded like it has in the past.

US Stock Market Dips Amid Rising COVID Cases, Big Tech Concerns, and Weak USD

Equities had a mixed week last week as investors continued to grapple with the stalling economic recovery due to rising COVID-19 case counts and deaths across the U.S. 
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