What Happened Last Week
- Oracle’s Blowout Report: A massive increase in its revenue guidance renewed optimism in the AI theme.
- Inflation As Expected: The inflation report was constructive for the Fed to begin cutting in September.
- Small Cap Pause: Despite falling yields, small caps gave up some of their recent outperformance last week.
What We’re Watching This Week
- Central Bank Activity: The Fed, Bank of Japan, and others will meet to set policy rates in their respective countries.
- Retail Sales: The market will have a fresh look at consumer activity for the month of August.
- Jobless Claims: Last week’s atypical data may lead to more scrutiny than usual on this timely labor report.
Investment Management Team’s Post
Equity markets continue to break with the trend of seasonal weakness as the S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100 both notched fresh all-time highs last week. The move was primarily idiosyncratic as Oracle’s massive revenue guidance reignited optimism in the AI theme. Apple unveiled its new product lineup, which was met with a tepid reaction and was overshadowed by general bullishness in tech. International stocks also made new all-time highs, as a weaker dollar and speculation that China is preparing to stimulate its domestic economy helped fuel the rally. Investors have mostly looked through Friday’s credit rating downgrade in France. The political dysfunction in that country is well known and is likely already in the price of European assets.
Falling longer-term bond yields buoyed equity markets last week, and the labor data revisions, although large in magnitude, were in line with expectations and did not have a major impact. The most important piece of economic data last week was the Consumer Price Index (CPI report). Tariff-induced cost increases, while continuing to appear in the data, remain relatively muted, allowing the Fed to begin cutting rates this week. There will be plenty to digest at their meeting on Wednesday afternoon, including the number of dissents, updated economic projections, and Chair Powell’s press conference. Markets seem to have been positioning for a sharp cutting cycle, although the rally in small caps took a breather last week, despite falling yields, which could indicate that some are expecting a “hawkish cut” from the Fed.
The week ahead is dominated by central bank activity. Beyond Wednesday’s Fed meeting, the Bank of Japan and six other central banks will set rates, adding to the global monetary policy mosaic. We will also receive a report on U.S. retail sales activity for the month of August. Consumer sentiment remains depressed due to tariff uncertainty and a labor market that has lost some steam in recent months, so investors are looking to the report for an update on whether or not that poor sentiment is affecting behavior. The Labor Department will publish updated jobless claims figures, and investors may watch them more closely than usual due to last week’s data anomaly related to fraudulent claims in Texas.