A Rapid Recovery

Man-made tariffs, then un-man-made, took markets on a wild ride this quarter


After plummeting nearly 19% on tariff fears, the S&P 500 staged a truly historic rally in the second quarter, soaring 23% in just 54 trading days.

That represents the index’s fastest-ever recovery following a decline of 15% or more, going back to 1957 (see the chart). The only other moments that came close are the recoveries following the collapse of the hedge fund Long-Term Capital Management in 1998 (58 days) and the 1980 recession (57 days).

Source: Bloomberg, calculations by Horizon, S&P 500 data as of 06/27/25. It is not possible to invest directly in an index.


Both the recent drawdown and the record-breaking upswing that followed share a common, man-made denominator: President Trump’s decision to impose significant and widespread tariffs on other nations, and his string of decisions thereafter to delay or (in some cases) back down entirely from those tariffs. With each policy retreat, investors became increasingly confident that Trump’s threats were merely negotiating tactics and unlikely to be implemented.

We believe this rapid recovery in stocks serves as a good reminder that an effective risk mitigation strategy should be highly responsive and able to re-engage with markets quickly as they move higher.

The S&P 500 or Standard & Poor’s 500 Index is a market-capitalization-weighted index of the 500 largest U.S. publicly traded companies. The composition of an index may not reflect the manner in which a portfolio is constructed in relation to expected or achieved returns, portfolio guidelines, restrictions, sectors, correlations, concentrations, volatility or tracking error targets, all of which are subject to change. Indices are unmanaged and do not have fees or expense charges, both of which would lower returns. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Information obtained from third party sources is believed reliable but has not been vetted by the firm or its personnel.
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