A Software Surge

New leaders emerge in the AI space

In the late 1800s, false rumors that Mark Twain had died prompted one of the writer’s most famous quotes: “The report of my death was an exaggeration.”

The same might be said today for software companies, whose revenues were supposed to be demolished by AI’s ability to write code and handle complex tasks more cheaply and easily than subscription-based software.

But rather than “being eaten” by AI, as predicted, some major software firms are monetizing it to deliver tangible results to their customers. Last week saw strong AI-fueled earnings reports from software-as-a-service (SaaS) bellwethers such as Salesforce, Workday, CrowdStrike, and Intuit.

One result: After a bruising first half of the year, software stocks have surged in the third quarter, up 20.8% and outgunning the semiconductor stocks that had been the darlings of the AI space by 36.6% (see the chart).

Software Versus Semiconductor Returns

Bloomberg, calculations by Horizon, data as of 08/28/2026

The AI chipmakers continue to deliver, as evidenced last week by Nvidia’s blowout quarterly earnings results. But thanks to their run-up during the first six months of 2026, big sector-wide gains are getting harder to come by.

Even as AI fundamentals remain strong, the recent rotation in leadership from semis to software tells us this is a market where being selective matters more than simply owning an index. AI is maturing. First, it was about who was spending. Then, who was getting paid. Going forward, we believe the next phase of the AI trade will be driven by companies that turn AI into real productivity through margin expansion and earnings growth. Software may be an early opportunity after AI fears weighed on the sector, but we expect the search for productive AI users to broaden across every sector.

This commentary is written by Horizon’s asset management team. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Nothing contained herein should be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. This report does not attempt to examine all the facts and circumstances that may be relevant to any company, industry, or security mentioned herein. We are not soliciting any action based on this document. It is for the general information of clients of Horizon Investments, LLC (“Horizon”). This document does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual clients. Before acting on any analysis, advice, or recommendation in this document, clients should consider whether the security in question is suitable for their particular circumstances and, if necessary, seek professional advice. Investors may realize losses on any investments. Asset allocation cannot eliminate the risk of fluctuating prices and uncertain returns. All investing involves the risk of loss.
S&P North American Expanded Technology Software Index measures the performance of U.S.-traded companies engaged primarily in software-related businesses, including select interactive media and services companies. MVIS U.S. Semiconductor Index tracks the performance of the largest and most liquid U.S.-listed companies that generate significant revenue from semiconductors and semiconductor equipment. References to indices, or other measures of relative market performance over a specified period of time are provided for informational purposes only. Reference to an index does not imply that any account will achieve returns, volatility or other results similar to that index. The composition of an index may not reflect the manner in which a portfolio is constructed in relation to expected or achieved returns, portfolio guidelines, restrictions, sectors, correlations, concentrations, volatility or tracking error targets, all of which are subject to change. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Information obtained from third party sources is believed reliable but has not been vetted by the firm or its personnel.

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