New leaders emerge in the AI space
In the late 1800s, false rumors that Mark Twain had died prompted one of the writer’s most famous quotes: “The report of my death was an exaggeration.”
The same might be said today for software companies, whose revenues were supposed to be demolished by AI’s ability to write code and handle complex tasks more cheaply and easily than subscription-based software.
But rather than “being eaten” by AI, as predicted, some major software firms are monetizing it to deliver tangible results to their customers. Last week saw strong AI-fueled earnings reports from software-as-a-service (SaaS) bellwethers such as Salesforce, Workday, CrowdStrike, and Intuit.
One result: After a bruising first half of the year, software stocks have surged in the third quarter, up 20.8% and outgunning the semiconductor stocks that had been the darlings of the AI space by 36.6% (see the chart).
Software Versus Semiconductor Returns
Bloomberg, calculations by Horizon, data as of 08/28/2026
The AI chipmakers continue to deliver, as evidenced last week by Nvidia’s blowout quarterly earnings results. But thanks to their run-up during the first six months of 2026, big sector-wide gains are getting harder to come by.
Even as AI fundamentals remain strong, the recent rotation in leadership from semis to software tells us this is a market where being selective matters more than simply owning an index. AI is maturing. First, it was about who was spending. Then, who was getting paid. Going forward, we believe the next phase of the AI trade will be driven by companies that turn AI into real productivity through margin expansion and earnings growth. Software may be an early opportunity after AI fears weighed on the sector, but we expect the search for productive AI users to broaden across every sector.