Another major revision to U.S. employment data
The U.S. economy created 911,000 fewer jobs from April 2024 through March 2025 than originally reported, according to a major revision announced this week by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This comes after recent news that the economy added just 22,000 new jobs in August, following revised data showing a net loss of jobs in June for the first time since 2020.
Is the sky falling? We don’t believe it is. It’s crucial to look beyond the headlines for context during moments like this. Do so, and you’ll see the following:
- Revisions are nothing new: This week’s preliminary Quarterly Census on Employment and Wages (QCEW) report covers about 97% of businesses, making it far more comprehensive than monthly jobs surveys, which capture only a third of the labor market. As a result, annual upward and downward revisions are common.
- A major revision was anticipated: Measuring monthly job growth after the pandemic has often led to big errors. The last QCEW report (April 2023–March 2024) was revised down by 818,000 jobs, and economists this time expected a similar cut of about 700,000. The actual revision was larger, but not unexpected.
- Consumers remained strong: Consumer spending averaged 2.75% during the same 12-month period that the preliminary QCEW covers—a strong showing despite the relatively low job growth numbers.
Preliminary Jobs Revision Data from Quarterly Census on Employment and Wages Reports (2020 – 2025)
Bureau of Labor Statistics, data as of 09/09/2025.
With the job market slowing, these revisions are becoming a more important data point to watch. As a result, the market expects the Federal Reserve Board to cut interest rates later this month and plans to implement additional cuts down the road.
Ultimately, the lesson from all these revised numbers is that it’s unwise to rely on a single data point—such as monthly job growth—to make broad conclusions about the economy and the financial markets. A broader range of economic indicators is crucial for developing a more comprehensive picture that can potentially enable goal-based investors to make better decisions.