The Big Number
Global central bank easing since the start of the year based on the cumulative actions of 33 major central banks weighted by GDP. Interest rates have been moving down.
Global central banks continued to ease, with the U.S. Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank (ECB) both cutting rates last week. The People’s Bank of China began slowly lowering interest rates as well.
The Markets’ Reaction
Global markets were generally lower as oil prices spiked nearly 6% following an attack on oil facilities in Saudi Arabia. The S&P 500 was down -0.5%, while world equities declined -0.4% (MXWO) and the yield on the 10-year Treasury note fell slightly. The rotation into value we have noted in previous Market Notes reversed course.
What this means
Trade is still driving markets. A clear resolution of this issue is likely required for the rotation to value to continue and for markets to move higher. All eyes on the second week in October when the (only ones that matter) high level talks resume in Washington, D.C.
What to Watch
Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) readings were released for both the U.S. and the ECB on Monday, providing a fresh look at growth prospects. Personal income and spending will be out on Friday as will the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index.
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